Where Will the ISS Crash? Inside NASA’s Plan for Point Nemo

 The International Space Station (ISS), the crowning jewel of orbital engineering and a symbol of post-Cold War cooperation, has an official expiration date. Despite a flurry of last-minute political debate this week on Capitol Hill, NASA is moving forward with its definitive plan: the station will not be preserved in a museum, nor boosted to a higher "graveyard" orbit. Instead, it will be guided into a suicide plunge into the remote waters of the Pacific Ocean.  

As of February 2026, the timeline is set. Operations will continue until 2030, after which the station—a structure the size of a football field—will be dragged down from the heavens by a custom-built SpaceX vehicle, aiming for a crash landing in early 2031.

The "United States Deorbit Vehicle"

To execute this colossal undertaking, NASA has handed the reins to its most trusted commercial partner, SpaceX. Under a contract valued at up to $843 million, Elon Musk’s aerospace company is developing the United States Deorbit Vehicle (USDV).  

While the USDV will share DNA with the cargo Dragon capsules that currently resupply the station, it will be a "Dragon on steroids." The spacecraft will feature an elongated trunk housing six times the propellant of a standard mission and roughly four times the power. It will be equipped with 46 Draco thrusters, specifically calibrated to fight the station's massive inertia.  

The engineering challenge is immense. The ISS weighs over 900,000 pounds (400 metric tons). It is a sprawling, fragile structure of trusses, solar arrays, and pressurized modules that was never designed to withstand significant thrust loads. The USDV must gently push the station out of orbit without snapping it in half before it hits the atmosphere.  

The Congressional "Hail Mary"

The confirmation of the deorbit plan comes amidst a fresh wave of nostalgia and hesitation in Washington. Just days ago, on February 5, 2026, lawmakers in the House Science Committee floated a "save the station" amendment, asking NASA to investigate the cost and feasibility of boosting the ISS to a higher, stable orbit—effectively mothballing it for future generations.

"It feels wrong to destroy a modern wonder of the world," remarked one committee member. "We don't burn down the Pyramids when we're done looking at them."

However, NASA administrators have remained firm. Boosting the massive structure to a safe altitude (likely above 800km) would require a propulsion vehicle far larger than anything currently available. Furthermore, an abandoned station would eventually decay, becoming a massive, uncontrollable debris hazard that could threaten future satellites for centuries.

"The safest option is a controlled entry," NASA’s Associate Administrator for Space Operations reiterated this week. "We must ensure the station comes down on our terms, not physics' terms."  

Target: Point Nemo

When the time comes in 2031, the USDV will execute a series of braking burns to lower the station’s altitude from its operational height of 250 miles. Once the station hits the thicker layers of the atmosphere, the drag will tear the solar panels and radiators away.  

The target for the surviving debris—which could include massive chunks of titanium and steel weighing tens of thousands of pounds—is the South Pacific Ocean Uninhabited Area, commonly known as Point Nemo.  

Located approximately 1,600 miles from the nearest speck of land, Point Nemo is the "oceanic pole of inaccessibility." It is a spacecraft graveyard where hundreds of satellites, as well as the Russian space station Mir, have been laid to rest. It is the safest place on Earth to crash a 400-ton object.  

An Aging Titan

The decision to end the ISS program is driven by harsh realities. Launched in 1998, the station’s core modules were designed for a 15-year lifespan. They have now exceeded that by over a decade.

In recent years, the station has shown its age. Persistent air leaks in the Russian Zvezda service module have forced crews to seal off sections of the station. Micro-vibrations and thermal cycles have caused metal fatigue in the primary structure. NASA estimates that keeping the ISS safe for humans beyond 2030 would cost billions in repairs—money the agency desperately needs for its Artemis moon missions and the Mars campaign.  

The Commercial Handover

The end of the ISS will not mean the end of an American presence in Low Earth Orbit (LEO). NASA is currently funding the development of several commercial space stations to take the baton.  

Axiom Space is already building modules that will attach to the ISS before detaching to form a free-flying station.  

Orbital Reef, a project led by Blue Origin and Sierra Space, envisions a "mixed-use business park" in orbit.

Starlab, a trans-Atlantic joint venture, aims to launch a single-module station on a Starship rocket.

By 2031, NASA hopes to be just one of many customers renting lab space on these private outposts, ending its role as a landlord in LEO.

The End of an Era

When the ISS finally streaks across the sky one last time, appearing as a brilliant, disintegrating meteor over the Pacific, it will mark the conclusion of the most complex construction project in human history. For over 25 years, humans have lived continuously in space, bridging geopolitical divides between the U.S., Russia, Europe, Japan, and Canada.  

While the hardware will sink to the ocean floor, the legacy of the ISS—the medical breakthroughs, the diplomatic bridges, and the proof that humanity can live among the stars—will remain in orbit long after the splashdown.